Thailand’s history of political and economic instability over the recent past has created investment opportunities for those with foresight and the wisdom to take advantage of those periods of price weakness.
The 1992 military crackdown in “Black May” as it was called, created instability in the stock markets and saw the Thai Fund, symbol TTF, trade to a low of 14.125 in August of that year. By January of 1993, it was trading back to 20.875, a 47% profit in just 5 months or annualized return of 112%. For those who held on until December of 1993, a 132% price increase was to be experienced.
The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 saw all asset prices fall in Thailand along with the Thai Baht, which sunk from its fixed rate of 25 baht/dollar to a low of 56 in January 1998—a loss of more than 50%. By the 3rd quarter of that year, the baht had rebounded to 36 baht/dollar, an increase of 36% for those investors who had stepped in to purchase the currency or any baht denominated assets that January, or 48% annualized return on top of the rebound in the asset prices. Total returns of 60%-75% were not uncommon.
The most recent political upheaval has also seen the baht weaken to a lesser degree. In April 2013, the Thai central bank governor had been warning against the strength of the baht, as it appreciated to 28.67 baht/dollar, its highest rates in 16 years. But the recent political unrest helped push the baht lower, with the baht hitting a low of 33 baht to the dollar with the announcement of the “Shutdown Bangkok” movement.
The weakness in the baht has also caused some property owners to become less price sensitive in pricing their properties for sale. The weakness in the Thai baht along with the reduction in some real estate prices have made some properties more attractive and may be the window of opportunity that some investors have been waiting for.
As the world famous investor Warren Buffet said, ““Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.”